Pilot Shortage...huh?? What????
I'm no mathematician, but even I can see there is the potential for a very large pilot shortage in the next 10 years. All the numbers crunched down below are very rough estimates. I know I've left airlines off of both lists, but I think my numbers are in the ballpark. Granted I've been hearing about pilot shortages for years and admit I bought into the hype, but I think the next shortage will be for real. Here's why.....
At the regional level, where the major airlines get most of their new hires these days, we have roughly 21,500 pilots in the pipeline as Part 121 airline pilots. In recent years, the majors had been on a hiring spree because the age 65 rule had not been passed yet. They were hiring to offset pilots getting forced out at 60. Most of their new hires were from the regional level because the military does not put out the numbers of pilots they used to. The regionals were expanding and getting bigger, while their pilots were moving on to the majors. This created a shortage of pilots at the entry level jobs at regionals. The airlines started out with minimums in the thousands of hours, only to find themselves running out of pilots with thousands of hours, so they dropped their minimums. The minimums continued to drop all the way to as low as it could possibly go, a wet commercial ticket and 200 hours. With the passage of the age 65 rule, the recession, ultra high gas prices of 2008 and the Colgan crash, everything has ground to a halt. The airlines are shrinking, pilots are getting furloughed, capacity is being cut, airframes are being retired faster and the industry has started going backward. Right now, we are in the valley, 2 years ago the industry was on a peak. In 5-7 years, we will again be reaching for a peak, this time twice as high as the one in 2007. This is where the potential for a pilot shortage is going to play a major role in pilot economics.
Regionals -
Air Wis - 700
ASA- 1700
Colgan - 400
Comair - 1450
Compass - 350
Eagle - 2700
Expressjet - 2700
Go Jet - 250
Great Lakes - 325
Horizon - 700
Lynx - 100
Mesa = 1400
Mesaba - 1150
Piedmont - 450
Pinnacle - 1300
PSA - 500
Republic et al - 2000
Skywest - 2800
Trans States - 450
TOTAL - 21,500 Ballpark
Majors -
Air Tran - 1600
Alaska - 1400
American - 11,600
Continental - 4800
Delta/NW - 12,300
Fed Ex - 4800
Southwest - 5900
United - 6400
UPS - 2900
US Air - 5200
TOTAL - 57,000 Give or take a few thousand
As you can see from the numbers above, there are roughly 21,000+ Part 121 regional airline pilots flying today. There are nearly triple that number at the major level. In roughly 2 years, all those OLD pilots that stayed in after turning 60, will start hitting 65. My guess is that roughly 35-40% of the current major airline pilot group will be retiring in the next 10 years. That is a lot of seats to fill. With the recent passage of the new 1500 hour with ATP license as a minimum to become an airline pilot, the new pilots coming through the ranks just got dealt a huge blow. This in turn is going to thin out the ranks of people aspiring to become airline pilots due to the extremely high barrier of entry. I'm guessing the enactment of this new law will cause a significant drop in the number of potential airline pilots. Besides, who in their right mind would drop $100,000 plus on a career that is going to start off paying you less than $20,000 to start. Something is going to have to change. Pilot pay, especially at the regionals, is something that will need to be addressed. The simple fact is that you are not going to attract the best and brightest applicants to this career with the profession being dragged through the mud by airline management. I think the last 10 months have shone a lot of light on the fact that an airline pilot career is not as glamorous as it is portrayed to be. The dark side of the career has reared its ugly head and the masses are slowly starting ot realize that the dream that was to be an airline pilot has evaporated in the last 10 years. Captain Sullenberger has graciously used his fame as a platform to inform the public what the airline career has spiraled into. I think the publics eye's are opening and this will deter future pilots.
So when the majors start hiring again, (5 years is my guess) and they start to drain the regional pool, what pool are the regionals going to hire from? Flight instruction is down across the board, the aviation colleges are going to have a pretty tough sell on the airline career nowadays. Who is going to want to drop the big bucks on an aviation degree only to go out and have to scrounge up 1500 hours after graduation. If you went the college way, you'd be 24-25 before getting your 1500 putting you way behind the career curve. Besides, once all those seats get filled in at the majors, they will stop hiring for quite some time. A high school freshman that is looking into an airline career this very day can look forward to possibly being a regional pilot for life. Its going to be a game of musical chairs for a few years. When the music stops and you are not lucky enough to be at the major of your dreams, good luck getting in.
I don't see the majors ever really having a problem finding pilots. I believe the industry is not done contracting and will only get smaller in the future. This will create less jobs at the majors. But when they do hire, and hire they will, who is going to take that sub $20,000 regional job? Looking back, knowing what I do now, I would have chosen another career. Maby the people looking at this job for a career now are having second thoughts......
At the regional level, where the major airlines get most of their new hires these days, we have roughly 21,500 pilots in the pipeline as Part 121 airline pilots. In recent years, the majors had been on a hiring spree because the age 65 rule had not been passed yet. They were hiring to offset pilots getting forced out at 60. Most of their new hires were from the regional level because the military does not put out the numbers of pilots they used to. The regionals were expanding and getting bigger, while their pilots were moving on to the majors. This created a shortage of pilots at the entry level jobs at regionals. The airlines started out with minimums in the thousands of hours, only to find themselves running out of pilots with thousands of hours, so they dropped their minimums. The minimums continued to drop all the way to as low as it could possibly go, a wet commercial ticket and 200 hours. With the passage of the age 65 rule, the recession, ultra high gas prices of 2008 and the Colgan crash, everything has ground to a halt. The airlines are shrinking, pilots are getting furloughed, capacity is being cut, airframes are being retired faster and the industry has started going backward. Right now, we are in the valley, 2 years ago the industry was on a peak. In 5-7 years, we will again be reaching for a peak, this time twice as high as the one in 2007. This is where the potential for a pilot shortage is going to play a major role in pilot economics.
Regionals -
Air Wis - 700
ASA- 1700
Colgan - 400
Comair - 1450
Compass - 350
Eagle - 2700
Expressjet - 2700
Go Jet - 250
Great Lakes - 325
Horizon - 700
Lynx - 100
Mesa = 1400
Mesaba - 1150
Piedmont - 450
Pinnacle - 1300
PSA - 500
Republic et al - 2000
Skywest - 2800
Trans States - 450
TOTAL - 21,500 Ballpark
Majors -
Air Tran - 1600
Alaska - 1400
American - 11,600
Continental - 4800
Delta/NW - 12,300
Fed Ex - 4800
Southwest - 5900
United - 6400
UPS - 2900
US Air - 5200
TOTAL - 57,000 Give or take a few thousand
As you can see from the numbers above, there are roughly 21,000+ Part 121 regional airline pilots flying today. There are nearly triple that number at the major level. In roughly 2 years, all those OLD pilots that stayed in after turning 60, will start hitting 65. My guess is that roughly 35-40% of the current major airline pilot group will be retiring in the next 10 years. That is a lot of seats to fill. With the recent passage of the new 1500 hour with ATP license as a minimum to become an airline pilot, the new pilots coming through the ranks just got dealt a huge blow. This in turn is going to thin out the ranks of people aspiring to become airline pilots due to the extremely high barrier of entry. I'm guessing the enactment of this new law will cause a significant drop in the number of potential airline pilots. Besides, who in their right mind would drop $100,000 plus on a career that is going to start off paying you less than $20,000 to start. Something is going to have to change. Pilot pay, especially at the regionals, is something that will need to be addressed. The simple fact is that you are not going to attract the best and brightest applicants to this career with the profession being dragged through the mud by airline management. I think the last 10 months have shone a lot of light on the fact that an airline pilot career is not as glamorous as it is portrayed to be. The dark side of the career has reared its ugly head and the masses are slowly starting ot realize that the dream that was to be an airline pilot has evaporated in the last 10 years. Captain Sullenberger has graciously used his fame as a platform to inform the public what the airline career has spiraled into. I think the publics eye's are opening and this will deter future pilots.
So when the majors start hiring again, (5 years is my guess) and they start to drain the regional pool, what pool are the regionals going to hire from? Flight instruction is down across the board, the aviation colleges are going to have a pretty tough sell on the airline career nowadays. Who is going to want to drop the big bucks on an aviation degree only to go out and have to scrounge up 1500 hours after graduation. If you went the college way, you'd be 24-25 before getting your 1500 putting you way behind the career curve. Besides, once all those seats get filled in at the majors, they will stop hiring for quite some time. A high school freshman that is looking into an airline career this very day can look forward to possibly being a regional pilot for life. Its going to be a game of musical chairs for a few years. When the music stops and you are not lucky enough to be at the major of your dreams, good luck getting in.
I don't see the majors ever really having a problem finding pilots. I believe the industry is not done contracting and will only get smaller in the future. This will create less jobs at the majors. But when they do hire, and hire they will, who is going to take that sub $20,000 regional job? Looking back, knowing what I do now, I would have chosen another career. Maby the people looking at this job for a career now are having second thoughts......
posted by Windsor at 9:32 PM
12 Comments:
I still spend "alot" of time with my family and I do get paid well. But, I do see your point! Good (not glamourous) job. I've had many jobs before this one and this is the best I've had. I can't see spending all the money it will take to meet the new mins...
For quite a while now I have been trying to find an Airline or Corporate to assist with regards to obtaining my PPL and the ICMEIR and I will continue until I do. I come from a disadvantaged family and I am willing to start anywhere in the Aviation Industry, but so far I am constantly hitting a brick wall. I am fluent in English, Afrikaans and Japanese and my ideal job would be to fly for JAL or ANA Airlines. Can you help a fellow skydriver?
So... you're saying that the regional pool is going to be drained into the majors. I agree with that. But why are you so negative about the outlook of your career when you're saying that you're one of the pilots the majors will be hiring in the coming pilot shortage? The high school freshman should be the one worrying.
I'm halfway through my instrument, and have already spent too much money to turn back. Plus, it's what we love to do. I honestly think the recent passage of the ATP requirement is ridiculous, but I was planning on getting my CFI anyway. 1500 hours come in no time.
Anon-
It is future pilots like yourself that are behind the curve. If you are not a professional pilot at this time, your chances of ever getting hired by a major airline are very slim. Even if you do eventually get hired, chances are it will be at the tail end of the hiring spree and you will be stuck as a reserve pilot for the majority of your career. The door to the majors will be open for about 5-6 years, then it will slam shut. A pilot in your shoes is looking at the regionals for life. A pilots license with an instrument rating is a great thing to have, dont ever consider it wasted money. I'd just think very very hard about my career choice if i were you, its not the dream that you might think it is.
Some people are meant to be doctors, some lawyers and then there are people such as ourselves that can't wait to take off. I am not a pilot yet, but I would like to firstly obtain my PPL and then move on to obtain my CPL. I envy pilots everyday because I spend most of my weekends flying a flight simulator at a local arcade mall. I could have spent those hours flying for an Airline. I understand that it's a lot of money to spend but it's an investment towards something I love, desire and passionate about. To me it doesn't matter if a pilot flies to International or Domestic destinations. What is important is that you have the privilege and honor everyday to work and do what you destined to do.
driver- I've been flying for half my life. I can remember a time when I flew flight simulators wishing I was doing the real thing. But the fantasy was a lot better than reality. Good luck with finding someone to finance your entry into the biz. I hope you can achieve your dream, just try not to be too disappointed if it doesnt work out the way you hope it will.
1) Anyone can speculate about when the majors are going to hire, when the the door opens and closes, etc.
2) Anyone can also speculate about when this pilot shortage is going to happen
3) Much like what we just experienced with this economy, anything unforeseen can come in the way of even professional pilots from reaching the majors
4) On the other side of the spectrum, who is to say that this door might be open longer than you think? Or that the door is to open later than you think?
5) With the increasing world population and demand for transportation rising, the only thing that would need to happen in order to keep up with demand is to either increase capacity or start new companies altogether.
I refuse to speculate about my future career. I'd rather sit in the front of a CRJ than sit at a desk (making more money) doing something I don't enjoy doing. Plus, that's why I have a backup. If it is as bad as you say it is (one of the only negative blogs I have read), then I can simply back out and keep something else a shot. I will always love flying, and I will always have that at my disposal. I'll keep my head up and I'll keep looking forward.
Scheets- My speculation is pure slightly-educated guess at best. I have also thrown out there worst case scenerio's. Nobody is going to predict the future of the airlines. There are too many variables. I'm basing my guess on known facts of future retirements and current airline staffing. But its a guess at best.
The only thing I can predict, is that the industry will be vastly different in 20 years than it is now. Airlines will fall, the price of oil will rise and I doubt there will be Majors doing much domestic flying at all. I see the regionals it. So if topping out in a RJ or turbo prop is good enough for you, then enjoy and good luck, cause as this salty former freight dawg sees it, the music might stop before the up and comers of today get the hours they need to make it to the major level.
joiboi said: I am single, still
handsome, a 135 box hauler. If I
get a job on a Regional Barbie
Jet....I will be a happy camper.
besides: what about International
flying? My pa said...better for
you son...less competition! be...
meek and humble.
Hi!This phrase really struck me hard:"Looking back, knowing what I do now, I would have chosen another career".
I'm from Buenos Aires, Argentina and just got my PPL and i'm working towards gathering the hours needed to get my CPL. I always think about the decision I am about to take, "putting all my eggs in the basket of aviation" and since I read this last post, you really made me think more and it's starting to worry me. Are you then, advising me against making aviation as my only carreer???
Thank you in advance for your answer
Anon - I have no clue about the aviation industry in Argentina. But if its anything like the rest of the world, I would highly suggest not putting all your eggs in one basket. I kick myself every once in a while for not getting some sort of minor in an area outside of aviation while I was in college. Leave yourself an out should flying not work out.
To Skydriver777 "What is important is that you have the privilege and honor everyday to work and do what you destined to do."
Sounds great....sad part is the electric, mortgage, cable, and car payments don't give a rats behind about our passion to fly, only if we pay our bills on time.
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