St. Elmo's Fire

Only a short clip of the awesome light show on our way around a few winter thunderstorms in Illinois. The video does not do it much justice. About 2 seconds into the video, you see a bright flash. That was not caused by lightning, but a burst of static electricity, called St. Elmo's fire. Most of the tiny flashes you can see are originating from the windshield wipers spreading across the windshield.

Few more flying pics

Niagara Falls From FL300
Obviously its go-home leg. Warp Speed ahead.
Can you find KGVQ?

Smoke Toilet

There are only a few reasons to rush something when flying. An indication of a fire is one of them. Fire is not something to be taken lightly. It must be treated with the utmost urgency. Nothing raises the hair on the back of my neck like talking about a fire on board an aircraft. Nothing gets my attention in the cockpit faster than an indication that there may be a fire on board. The other day was the first time I've ever had to deal with a potential fire on board my aircraft in flight.

It started out as a normal routine day. We had a late show time of 1130am coming off a long overnight, so for once I was well rested and ready for the day. The plane still had some left over snow on it from the night before, so after boarding up we headed on over to the de-ice bay to get hosed off. The Captain and I remarked to each other that the de-icer was really spraying it on thick. It looked to us like he was trying to empty the truck of fluid on our plane. He was really giving it a bath. (I think we both took notice of this and tucked it away in our short term memory banks for later use.) After spraying we completed our after de-icing checklist and made our way to the runway. After a 10 minute atc delay we took the runway for departure. It was a nice clear day with light winds out of the east, I was looking forward to a nice easy flight. Little did I know that flight would only last 8 minutes in the air.

As we turned on the runway, rechecked our headings an initial altitude, I took control of the aircraft. I brought the thrust levers up, released the brakes and had the Captain set thrust. Everything was normal. We accelerated down the runway, he called "V1, Rotate........V2" and we lifted off. He called "positive rate" I called for the gear to be raised and thats when we started to "smell that smell, oohhhh that smell" to quote some Skynard. It was that acrid, smoldering stink of type 1 de-icing fluid going through our environmental system. Only this time, it was stronger and more concentrated than I have ever smelled it. About a second after it hit our olfactory nerves, thats when the master caution single chime went off. I quickly glanced over at the eicas and saw the Smoke Toilet caution message staring back at me. The very next thought out of my tiny pilot brain was, "shit, thats not good" followed very quickly by my saying"I have the controls and radios, perform the QRH for smoke toilet. From previous experience running this checklist in the sim, I knew at the end of it we were to land at the nearest suitable airport. So while the Captain was busy performing the QRH, I informed the tower we were declaring an emergency and returning to the airport.

It was a busy time in the cockpit with the Captain running the checklist, calling the flight attendant to have her check the lav and pulling circuit breakers while I was flying the plane, talking to atc and setting up the aircraft for an approach back into the airport. Thankfully the weather was nice and made flying the plane an easy task. Since we were in such close proximity to the airport, all I did was make a left turn to put us on a left downwind for the runway we had just departed. Since the Captain was busy with the QRH, I had to plug in the ILS to the FMS, plug in the ILS frequency into the RTU, set the proper V-speeds for our current overweight landing, put the flaps out, the gear down and run the before landing checklist. By the time the Captain caught up with everything, I was already turning a 3 mile final. He double checked everything I had already done and re-completed the before landing checklist. The approach and landing was about as normal as could be in that situation. The landing was a greaser and we taxied off the runway to have the local Crash Fire Rescue (CFR) come take a look at the lav for us.

Now I know what you may be thinking, why are they not stopping on the runway and evacuating the passengers? Theres a fire on the plane!! The flight attendant went back and checked the lav while we were in the air. She reported there was no indication of a fire. So with her verification and the fact that we've heard stories of de-icing fluid causing a smoke toilet message, we decided not to do an evacuation. We did however pull into the de-icing bay and have CFR come on board and inspect the lav for us. They did not find any indication of a fire. So we started up an engine and headed over to the gate. The passengers de-planed and we got on the phone with the company to find out the next step. Little did we know that the next step wouldn't happen for another 5 hours and ended up with the flight being cancelled due to weather in DTW, but thats another story in itself.

A year in photos

I know its been a long long time since I've posted, but you know the old saying "if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say it at all" well, I've been subscribing to that theory. Some of my previous posts were leaning towards the negative and my attitude towards aviation in general was pretty dismal, so I decided to take a break. Here is whats happened in the last 12 months as told thru my cell phone camera. Chronologically, these pics start with the most recent and go back for the last 12 months since I last posted. Every one has its own special meaning and reason for being posted.

Minimums, Minimums

In the midwest where I normally fly, its pretty rare to have an airport socked in by fog. It happens on occasion, but usually burns off by mid morning. A few weeks ago was the exception to the rule. DTW fogged in around 6am and stayed that way most of the day. In one flight we logged 2 CAT II approaches, one to bare minimums, a missed approach, holding, a near diversion and a low visibility taxi. I have not flown in such foggy weather like this since my freight hauling days.

It all started out with a 4:45am wake up call. This was to be day 2 of a 4 day trip with 2 easy legs. We were going from AVP-DTW-OMA for a 20 hour layover. Everything was very routine and normal until I started my walk around and took a look at the fuel panel. As part of my walk around, I normally open up the fuel control access panel and turn the panel on. This way I can see how much fuel has been loaded on the plane. It struck me as very odd that we were loaded up with nearly 9,000lbs of fuel for a 1:15 minute flight. Typically we wouldnt take much more than 6,000lbs. So I immeadiatly figured we had an alternate. I finished up the walk around after a few minute delay in the -200 F.O slice of heaven and headed up to the cockpit. As I was taking my jacket off and stowing it, the Captain turned around and said "This is going to be an interesting morning" and handed me the flight release. I took a look at the weather in DTW and saw exactly why we had 9,000lbs of fuel, DTW was forcasting light winds, 1/2mi visibilities with fog and a 100ft ceiling. Temporarily from about an hour before we arrived to 2 hours after our arrival time the forecast dropped to 1/4mi visibility and fog. Since the visibility forecasted was less than the published minimums of 1/2mi vis, we needed to add 2 alternate airports and enough fuel to fly to the farthest alternate plus 45min of reserve fuel. Hence the 9,000lbs of fuel on board.

The self loading freight boarded up and we shut the door and pushed back. We were expecting a flow control delay into DTW on the taxi out, but it never came. We lifted off a few minutes later into a black, starless early morning sky. Since it was my leg, during the preflight briefing, I infomed the Captain that I would be flying at long range cruise to conserve fuel. As the airplane leveled off at our cruising altitude of 28,000 ft, I pulled the thrust levers back and set LRC power to bring our fuel flows from around 1250lbs per hour to around 1000lbs. This 500lb reduction in fuel flow would come in handy in about 45 min.

As fast as airplanes are, they are not fast enough to outrun the sunrise. Enroute to DTW, the sun was making its way over the horizon. Thankfully the sun was behind us, because its much easier on the eyes at O'Dark thirty. But with the sunrise comes the fog. We were monitoring the ATIS through our automatic acars updates and in the span of about 20 min, we went from atis L to R. That means the weather at the airport changed 6 times in a very short period of time. The visibilities were fluctuating between 2200 rvr and 800 rvr depending on runway. Pretty soon we get the call from ATC telling everyone that DTW is only accepting Cat II and III aircraft. Thankfully both the aircraft and the crew (us) were Cat II certified. This means that we use a little different technique and procedures to land when the visibilities are less than the standard 1/2 mile vis or 2400 rvr. We are allowed to land with an rvr of 12ooft. For those of you wondering what RVR is, that stands for runway visual range. Since we were able to do a Cat II approach, we continued to DTW while those who were not able to shoot the approach were given holding instructions.

The closer we got to DTW, we could see what the problem was. We could see the buildings of downtown Detroit sticking through the thick layer of fog. Closer to downtown, it was a thin low laying layer of fog and clouds. The closer to the airport you looked, the thicker and more dense the clouds/fog got. As we were on downwind for 3R, we heard an aircraft or two get cleared for the approach. Then as we were about to turn base, the approach controller stated the rvr had dropped to 800ft. This is lower than what we are authorized for therefore we could not commence with the approach. Neither could the other 3 or 4 aircraft in the pattern at that time. Since we were so close to the airport and off any published airways, the approach controller put us into a radar vectored holding pattern near the outer marker. At this point its all asses and elbows in the cockpit because we are very busy flying the aircraft, checking our fuel state, checking weather at our alternates, talking to dispatch and trying to make PA announcements to the passengers to try and keep them in the loop. Granted we had been doing most of these things enroute and had come up with a gameplan in case we couldnt make it in to DTW, but now we needed to start planning on putting it into action in case we infringed on our bingo fuel. We came up with a bingo fuel number a little earlier in the flight. Bingo fuel for us that morning was enough fuel to get from DTW to our alternate, shoot an approach and still land with 2100lbs of gas in the wings. In midstream of getting all this done, approach announced the rvr on 3R had gone back up to 1200ft. So we momentarily stashed the plans and preperations to divert and re-prepared for the approach. We were vectored on to 12 mile final behind company traffic and cleared for the approach. The aircraft in front of us was switched to tower frequncy and shortly thereafter we were as well. It was about this time when the weather decided to throw another wrench into the morning. The aircraft in front of us contacted tower and informed them that they were inside the final approach fix on the ILS approach to 3R. Tower then cleared them to land and informed them the rvr was back down to 800ft. For them, its not too big of a deal because they are still legal to continue the approach and continue to the Decision Height and can "take a look", for us, it creates more of a problem because we cannot legally continue the approach. We were outside the final approach fix, therefore could not continue the approach. By the time we got a word in with tower, we had already proceded past the final approach fix and were heading down the ILS. Tower cleared us to land, but we couldnt, so we informed him that we would have to go around. A few seconds later tower issued missed approach instructions and I poured on the coals and performed a go around manuver. While we were in the process of the go around, we were handed back off to approach. The controller informed us that the rvr to 4R was still at 12oo and asked if we could accept that. We quickly agreed that we could and would like vectors for that approach. Again its all asses and elbows in the cockpit because we just got done performing a missed approach and now we have to set up the plane for an approach to a different runway. While getting vectors for the new runway, we re-loaded the FMS, tuned in the ILS, briefed the approach, re-checked our fuel situation and sent for new landing numbers for the new runway. We accomplished all of the required tasks and started making our way down an ILS for the second time. Approach handed us off to tower and shortly thereafter we were again cleared to land, the current rvr was 1200ft. We had just cleared the final approach fix when we heard tower clear an aircraft for takeoff. Tower then stated the rvr on 4R was 800ft. The Captain and I exchanged looks and both agreed to continue the approach to the decision height. Once you are inside the final approach fix, you are still legal to continue the approach even if the visibility gets reported less than the minimums for the approach. The autopilot was doing a good job of tracking the localizer and glideslope and I was keeping the speed pegged right at our ref speed. At 200 feet to minimums the Captain announced he was going heads up. I slid my thumb over the autopilot disconnect button and started to prepare for go around number 2. We were about 40ft from DH and I was just getting ready to go around when the Captain announced "Runway in sight, my controls" I quickly glanced out and could see the approach lights whizzing by in the fog below. A split second later the runway appeared and just as "Chuck Roberts" called "50" the Captain retarded the thrust levers and started to flare for landing. I could see a few stripes of the runway centerline in front of us, but that was about it. We were cleared to taxi off the runway at taxiway V and contact ground. We crawled down the runway and finally saw the taxiway. We made the turn and told tower we were clear of the runway. We flipped over to ground and told them where we were and what gate we were going to. He cleared us to taxi to the gate. I left the landing lights and strobes on because it was like soup ou there. We couldnt really see a whole lot in front of us. We slowly made our way to the gate, pulled in and shut down. I think both of us were a wee bit sweaty because that was one eventful flight.

Death of an Airline

While there will be planes in the sky with the Midwest paint job, they will not be operated by any Midwest pilots or flight attendants. As former employee number 46262, I will miss Midwest airlines. Its a shame what has happened to such a great little airline. Here's to you Midwest Pilots, my hats off to you for holding the line and staying strong even though you were going to lose the battle.

Pilot Shortage...huh?? What????

I'm no mathematician, but even I can see there is the potential for a very large pilot shortage in the next 10 years. All the numbers crunched down below are very rough estimates. I know I've left airlines off of both lists, but I think my numbers are in the ballpark. Granted I've been hearing about pilot shortages for years and admit I bought into the hype, but I think the next shortage will be for real. Here's why.....

At the regional level, where the major airlines get most of their new hires these days, we have roughly 21,500 pilots in the pipeline as Part 121 airline pilots. In recent years, the majors had been on a hiring spree because the age 65 rule had not been passed yet. They were hiring to offset pilots getting forced out at 60. Most of their new hires were from the regional level because the military does not put out the numbers of pilots they used to. The regionals were expanding and getting bigger, while their pilots were moving on to the majors. This created a shortage of pilots at the entry level jobs at regionals. The airlines started out with minimums in the thousands of hours, only to find themselves running out of pilots with thousands of hours, so they dropped their minimums. The minimums continued to drop all the way to as low as it could possibly go, a wet commercial ticket and 200 hours. With the passage of the age 65 rule, the recession, ultra high gas prices of 2008 and the Colgan crash, everything has ground to a halt. The airlines are shrinking, pilots are getting furloughed, capacity is being cut, airframes are being retired faster and the industry has started going backward. Right now, we are in the valley, 2 years ago the industry was on a peak. In 5-7 years, we will again be reaching for a peak, this time twice as high as the one in 2007. This is where the potential for a pilot shortage is going to play a major role in pilot economics.

Regionals -

Air Wis - 700
ASA- 1700
Colgan - 400
Comair - 1450
Compass - 350
Eagle - 2700
Expressjet - 2700
Go Jet - 250
Great Lakes - 325
Horizon - 700
Lynx - 100
Mesa = 1400
Mesaba - 1150
Piedmont - 450
Pinnacle - 1300
PSA - 500
Republic et al - 2000
Skywest - 2800
Trans States - 450
TOTAL - 21,500 Ballpark


Majors -

Air Tran - 1600
Alaska - 1400
American - 11,600
Continental - 4800
Delta/NW - 12,300
Fed Ex - 4800
Southwest - 5900
United - 6400
UPS - 2900
US Air - 5200
TOTAL - 57,000 Give or take a few thousand

As you can see from the numbers above, there are roughly 21,000+ Part 121 regional airline pilots flying today. There are nearly triple that number at the major level. In roughly 2 years, all those OLD pilots that stayed in after turning 60, will start hitting 65. My guess is that roughly 35-40% of the current major airline pilot group will be retiring in the next 10 years. That is a lot of seats to fill. With the recent passage of the new 1500 hour with ATP license as a minimum to become an airline pilot, the new pilots coming through the ranks just got dealt a huge blow. This in turn is going to thin out the ranks of people aspiring to become airline pilots due to the extremely high barrier of entry. I'm guessing the enactment of this new law will cause a significant drop in the number of potential airline pilots. Besides, who in their right mind would drop $100,000 plus on a career that is going to start off paying you less than $20,000 to start. Something is going to have to change. Pilot pay, especially at the regionals, is something that will need to be addressed. The simple fact is that you are not going to attract the best and brightest applicants to this career with the profession being dragged through the mud by airline management. I think the last 10 months have shone a lot of light on the fact that an airline pilot career is not as glamorous as it is portrayed to be. The dark side of the career has reared its ugly head and the masses are slowly starting ot realize that the dream that was to be an airline pilot has evaporated in the last 10 years. Captain Sullenberger has graciously used his fame as a platform to inform the public what the airline career has spiraled into. I think the publics eye's are opening and this will deter future pilots.

So when the majors start hiring again, (5 years is my guess) and they start to drain the regional pool, what pool are the regionals going to hire from? Flight instruction is down across the board, the aviation colleges are going to have a pretty tough sell on the airline career nowadays. Who is going to want to drop the big bucks on an aviation degree only to go out and have to scrounge up 1500 hours after graduation. If you went the college way, you'd be 24-25 before getting your 1500 putting you way behind the career curve. Besides, once all those seats get filled in at the majors, they will stop hiring for quite some time. A high school freshman that is looking into an airline career this very day can look forward to possibly being a regional pilot for life. Its going to be a game of musical chairs for a few years. When the music stops and you are not lucky enough to be at the major of your dreams, good luck getting in.

I don't see the majors ever really having a problem finding pilots. I believe the industry is not done contracting and will only get smaller in the future. This will create less jobs at the majors. But when they do hire, and hire they will, who is going to take that sub $20,000 regional job? Looking back, knowing what I do now, I would have chosen another career. Maby the people looking at this job for a career now are having second thoughts......